Lithuanian energy security research and assessment of energy security level

One of the key unsolved European issues of the recent time is the security of energy supply. This task requires an extensive interdisciplinary attention and synthesis of research results in various fields, such as energy, economy, reliability and risk of technical systems, energy politics, sociology, etc. Currently energy security and energy security level assessment methods are being very rapidly developed in the world. Lithuania is one of the participants of the process. Lithuania has included the energy security assessment issue in the national energy strategy and other key documents as a primary aim and performs national research programme “Future energy”. According to the programme project ATE-08/2010 was performed, where as a result key energy assessment methodology principles were developed, threats and energy disturbances assessment methods were developed.
The proposed project is a continuation of already performed project. The aim is based on the previous project results perform Lithuanian energy security evaluation, assessment of security level, compare it with security levels of other countries. In the project various types of threats and their probability will be assessed, disturbances caused by threats and their development scenarios in the energy system will be modelled. The result of energy security analysis will be the distribution of possible probabilistic consequences. Consequences are described as un-served energy amount and possible increase of energy prices, taking into account all possible threats and their probabilities. In the project integral Lithuanian energy security level, taking into account to a number of energy security indicators, will be assessed. Obtained energy security level will be compared with the level of other countries, as well as various Lithuanian energy development scenarios will be assessed and impact to the energy security level will be evaluated. By applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis resumptive conclusions.

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